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CANDLESTICK PATTERN

STATISTICS

BASED ON SITUATIONAL METRICS USING TECHNICAL INDICATORS

FOR CRYPTO

 
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Candlestick patterns are ubiquitous in crypto trading and are unavoidable. We see them on charts and know whether they are bullish or bearish. Yet, we don’t know their true efficacy and must take them at face value because we haven’t tested them ourselves. Incorporating untested candlestick patterns into a trade thesis is a risky gamble. And as traders, we need to take the gamble out of any trade when possible and focus on statistically favorable edges instead. For these reasons, I analyzed common (and uncommon) candlestick patterns on the daily time frame, and went a few steps further and analyzed them in conjunction with technical indicators to gain more insight into their influence on price.

Whether you’re a swing trader or an investor looking for potential entries or exits, or a day trader unsure of which bias to have for the trading day, our candlestick pattern statistics at Candlenomics could be beneficial by adding a statistical edge to your trading systems.

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CANDLESTICK PATTERNS

BULLISH PATTERNS:

BEARISH PATTERNS:

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SITUATIONAL METRICS

For better insight into a candlestick patterns effectiveness, 5 types of indicators were used to help identify market conditions in which patterns occurred (when applicable) and after a pattern occurred. 

  1. 50 Moving Average (MA) - used to define the trend

  2. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) - a volume indicator to identify buying or selling pressure

  3. Stochastic RSI (sRSI) - an oscillating indicator to identify over extended conditions

  4. Bollinger Bands (BB) - used to identify price within a highs and lows frame of reference

  5. Average True Range (ATR) - measures the volatility of price

BULLISH PATTERN METRICS:

  1. All pattern occurrences regardless of indicators

  2. Below 50 MA

  3. Below 50 MA and CMF is positive

  4. Below 50 MA and CMF is negative

  5. Below 50 MA and sRSI is greater than 80

  6. Below 50 MA and sRSI is less than 20

  7. Below 50 MA and high is above upper BB

  8. Below 50 MA and low is below lower BB

BEARISH PATTERN METRICS

  1. All pattern occurrences regardless of indicators

  2. Above 50 MA

  3. Above 50 MA and CMF is positive

  4. Above 50 MA and CMF is negative

  5. Above 50 MA and sRSI is greater than 80

  6. Above 50 MA and sRSI is less than 20

  7. Above 50 MA and high is above upper BB

  8. Above 50 MA and low is below lower BB

BULLISH REVERSAL PATTERN SITUATIONAL METRICS

ALL OCCURRENCES

BULL0.gif

BELOW 50 MA

BULL1.gif

BELOW 50 MA AND CMF +

BULL3.gif

BELOW 50 MA AND CMF -

BULL2.gif

BELOW 50 MA

AND sRSI > 80

BULL4.gif

BELOW 50 MA

AND sRSI < 20

BULL5.gif

BELOW 50 MA

AND HIGH > UB BB

BULL6.gif

BELOW 50 MA

AND LOW < LB BB

BULL7.gif

BEARISH REVERSAL PATTERN SITUATIONAL METRICS

ALL OCCURRENCES

BEAR0.gif

ABOVE 50 MA

BEAR1.gif

ABOVE 50 MA AND CMF +

BEAR3.gif

ABOVE 50 MA AND CMF -

BEAR2.gif

ABOVE 50 MA

AND sRSI > 80

BEAR4.gif

ABOVE 50 MA

AND sRSI < 20

BEAR5.gif

ABOVE 50 MA

AND HIGH > UB BB

BEAR6.gif

ABOVE 50 MA

AND LOW < LB BB

BEAR7.gif

SITUATIONAL OCCURRENCES

OCCURENCE-TOTAL.gif
 
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ANALYSIS

20 candles following a pattern were analyzed to measure its effectiveness. The candles were measured based on the high and low of the last candle in the pattern (trigger). Below are the metrics used to analyze the subsequent candles.

AVERAGE OCCURENCE OF:

  1. An up candle

  2. A down candle

  3. ATR reached?

  4. High above trigger high

  5. High below trigger high

  6. Close above trigger high

  7. Close below trigger high

  8. Low above trigger low

  9. Low below trigger low

  10. Close above trigger low

  11. Close below trigger low

AVERAGE AND MEDIAN:

  1. Change %

  2. Range %

  3. High from trigger high %

  4. Low from trigger high %

  5. Close from trigger high %

  6. High from trigger low %

  7. Low from trigger low %

  8. Close from trigger low %

Trigger candle example

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Stastics data sheet and graph example

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GET INSTANT ACCESS

TO ALL STATISTICS

Portion of every sale goes to the charity freewheelchairmission.org

Statistics based off CRYPTO MAJORS: BTCUSD (Coinbase), BTCUSD (Bittrex), BTCUSD (Bitstamp), BTCUSDT (Binance), ETHUSD (Coinbase), ETHUSDT (Bittrex), ETHUSD (Bitstamp), ETHUSDT (Binance), LTCUSD (Coinbase), LTCUSDT (Bittrex), LTCUSD (Bitstamp), LTCUSDT (Binance), XRPUSD (Coinbase), XRPUSDT (Bittrex), XRPUSD (Bitstamp), XRPUSDT (Binance). ALL PAIR and ALL EXCHANGE are in reference to the aforementioned.